Forum: empire-en
Board: [589] Strategy & Tactics Discussion
Topic: [75169] spy and the 5%?????
[1372415]
evets4 [None]
:: Aug. 6, 2012, 1:37 a.m.
It randomly happens, I sabotaged someone with 15 percent risk and was successful, but failed with 5% risk once.
[1372445]
BobFighter834 (INT2) [None]
:: Aug. 6, 2012, 6:36 a.m.
Jason Grace II wrote: »Funny, whenever it is 5% i lose. ALWAYS GO FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE BAR 75% accuracyisgood,andI ususally win....
75% is a terrible accuracy for espionage. Always go for 100% with all the spies you can (unless you already have the minimum risk - 5%).
As for %ages for sabotage, just don't do it in the first place, unless you're doing it for the achievement.
[1376249]
cheeze-it-guy [None]
:: Aug. 15, 2012, 7:24 p.m.
yes sofri hates me very much for prepairing the future. but im glad im not in thier alliance anymore. they arent very the right kind of people for me. and no math does not suck. i live with math and i enjoy it....
math + smart=
good math. good grades. fun job. good money.good wife. good house. good life. good kids. good body gaurds.
but we shouldn't change the subject on the spy at 5%. usually i use a little tip from myself. get your spy put it to 19% of getting caught. and you never get caught. funny thing is i do that all the time and not once have i been caught.
math + smart=
good math. good grades. fun job. good money.good wife. good house. good life. good kids. good body gaurds.
but we shouldn't change the subject on the spy at 5%. usually i use a little tip from myself. get your spy put it to 19% of getting caught. and you never get caught. funny thing is i do that all the time and not once have i been caught.
[1376264]
Fire Castle [None]
:: Aug. 15, 2012, 7:37 p.m.
hey cheeze it guy do you know me? i used to be in Laneras alliance (the crushers)
hows things in Sparta Empire?
hows things in Sparta Empire?
[1376366]
cheeze-it-guy [None]
:: Aug. 16, 2012, 12:31 a.m.
its spartaVIII
and its fine. i didn't know you went on the forums
and its fine. i didn't know you went on the forums
[1377039]
Badgame [None]
:: Aug. 17, 2012, 3:59 p.m.
xJadetsssx wrote: »Luck, is not in your side, I once was trying to spy a RBC with 5% chance of being caught yet i failed like 4 times in a row, sometimes you dont have luck
4 times in a row!??!?!?!?!? impossible!
[1377041]
BobFighter834 (INT2) [None]
:: Aug. 17, 2012, 4:02 p.m.
4 times in a row!??!?!?!?!? impossible!
No. Not impossible. Just rare - there's a 1 in 160,000 chance.
[1378175]
bizzen [None]
:: Aug. 20, 2012, 8:54 a.m.
ya one of my allies had a 95% chance and it was successful the opponent had 210 guards. Its all about luck
[1379012]
stanislqvi (BG1) [None]
:: Aug. 22, 2012, 1:27 a.m.
That's great
[1381540]
Austin12321 [None]
:: Aug. 28, 2012, 1:43 a.m.
Maybe he has dummy soldiers and bowmen on his keep, which simulates for enemy spies.
[1381663]
xJadetsssx [None]
:: Aug. 28, 2012, 7:01 a.m.
Austin12321 wrote: »Maybe he has dummy soldiers and bowmen on his keep, which simulates for enemy spies.
and what does this have to do with the thread itself?
[1381766]
cheeze-it-guy [None]
:: Aug. 28, 2012, 1:42 p.m.
xJadetsssx wrote: »and what does this have to do with the thread itself?
jade please stick with the topic.
[1387337]
Shaidammoto (US1) [None]
:: Sept. 7, 2012, 9:47 p.m.
ok try this do it 100 times at 5% if you fail more then 5 times something is off.
on the other hand if you only fail 5 times its fine PROBLEM SOLLLLVED.
oh and there is no such thing as luck when it comes to % they are set statistics if it says 5% it will always happen 5 out of 100 times scientific fact.
on the other hand if you only fail 5 times its fine PROBLEM SOLLLLVED.
oh and there is no such thing as luck when it comes to % they are set statistics if it says 5% it will always happen 5 out of 100 times scientific fact.
[1387635]
BobFighter834 (INT2) [None]
:: Sept. 8, 2012, 9:30 a.m.
Shaidammoto wrote: »ok try this do it 100 times at 5% if you fail more then 5 times something is off.
on the other hand if you only fail 5 times its fine PROBLEM SOLLLLVED.
oh and there is no such thing as luck when it comes to % they are set statistics if it says 5% it will always happen 5 out of 100 times scientific fact.
No. That's rubbish.
If you try to spy 100 times with 5% risk, ON AVERAGE you will fail 5 times. This does not mean that anything is "broken" if you fail 4 or 6 times. It means that it wasn't perfectly correct.
Try rolling a normal 6-sided die ("die" is the correct singular of "dice") 6 times. If it doesn't land on 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 once each, does that mean that something is wrong? No.
There is such a thing as "luck" and being "unlucky". If you fail 5 times in a row with a 5% risk, you were unlucky during those particular attempts because there is only a 1 in 3,200,000 chance of that happening.
"5%" means that "on average, XYZ will happen 5 times out of 100". It does NOT mean "always".
Don't say "scientific fact" if it isn't. What you said is mostly rubbish. Wikipedia says (on the page found at this link - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability):
Wikipedia (emphasis added) wrote:Probability is a measure of the expectation that an event will occur or a statement is true.
It says "expectation". That means that something with 5% chance is EXPECTED to happen 5 in every 100 times, but it is not certain.
[1388410]
Shaidammoto (US1) [None]
:: Sept. 10, 2012, 12:25 p.m.
Probability
Probability is a subject that deals with uncertainty. In everyday terminology, probability can be thought of as a numerical measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur. Probability values are assigned on a scale from 0 to 1, with values near 0 indicating that an event is unlikely to occur and those near 1 indicating that an event is likely to take place. A probability of 0.50 means that an event is equally likely to occur as not to occur. ... (12,460 of 12,460 words) and thats from the prose so if you want to argue it take it u with ppl paid to do this kind of work and this aint no wiki it's Britannica. so that should answer the question!
from this we have to say each time is a separate event and that means each time you spy the system determines your chance rather then a over all for many attempts i stand corrected
Probability is a subject that deals with uncertainty. In everyday terminology, probability can be thought of as a numerical measure of the likelihood that a particular event will occur. Probability values are assigned on a scale from 0 to 1, with values near 0 indicating that an event is unlikely to occur and those near 1 indicating that an event is likely to take place. A probability of 0.50 means that an event is equally likely to occur as not to occur. ... (12,460 of 12,460 words) and thats from the prose so if you want to argue it take it u with ppl paid to do this kind of work and this aint no wiki it's Britannica. so that should answer the question!
from this we have to say each time is a separate event and that means each time you spy the system determines your chance rather then a over all for many attempts i stand corrected
[1392392]
draco974 [None]
:: Sept. 20, 2012, 11:04 a.m.
i must have the worst luck in the world 5 % chance of being caught and caught 7 times T-T
[1392395]
LegendaryKing64 [None]
:: Sept. 20, 2012, 11:48 a.m.
I will attach a screenshot later on tonight. This is where I sent 1 spy against 45 guards. I set it at the maximum allowed which was 95% capture rate. I sent three spies to three different castles and two were repelled and the other one was successful. Which goes to show that having 15 can be a burden sometimes.
Promised screenshot: Hope it is readable:
Promised screenshot: Hope it is readable:
[1402189]
Usafire [None]
:: Oct. 13, 2012, 11:05 a.m.
hello what do you mean by troops? what is troop?
[1402244]
MikeK1 [None]
:: Oct. 13, 2012, 2:17 p.m.
Well, luck is a factor you need to consider. In real life, even if the odds are with you, sometimes things don't work out. :P But being caught 20 times is a lot haha.
[1831733]
WarriorFemi [None]
:: Aug. 14, 2014, 4:57 p.m.
my lucky number has been 17%(risk of being caught) and any amount of spy prcentage... i have a 95% success rate when i use it