Forum: empire-en
Board: [589] Strategy & Tactics Discussion
Topic: [75169] spy and the 5%?????
[-75169]
cheeze-it-guy [None]
:: July 3, 2012, 9:09 p.m.
hey i'm a little confused on how the spy works. but i'm not a newbie.
first of all when you send the spy it has the set of percent on getting caught and the percent on seeing how much men you will spy on.
i set the spy at a 100% with 7 spy's and a 5% on getting caught.
i sent it and waited for the spy to get to its destination. but it got caught. theres a 5% on there on it got caught which i find this very confusing. try gambling 21. and you have 19 cards. what are the odds you will get a two? and thats the 5%
why does the spy get caught when its on a low rate on getting caught X( ??
thats why im asking to see if i get a proper answer ?(
first of all when you send the spy it has the set of percent on getting caught and the percent on seeing how much men you will spy on.
i set the spy at a 100% with 7 spy's and a 5% on getting caught.
i sent it and waited for the spy to get to its destination. but it got caught. theres a 5% on there on it got caught which i find this very confusing. try gambling 21. and you have 19 cards. what are the odds you will get a two? and thats the 5%
why does the spy get caught when its on a low rate on getting caught X( ??
thats why im asking to see if i get a proper answer ?(
[1363760]
xJadetsssx [None]
:: July 3, 2012, 9:23 p.m.
Hey, is about %
Your question will be the same as asking "why people win the lottery"?
Your question will be the same as asking "why people win the lottery"?
[1363775]
cheeze-it-guy [None]
:: July 3, 2012, 9:57 p.m.
buy a 100 of those lottery tickets and they are about 1 dollar each and you will only have 1 percent to actually win the lottery, i'm just saying losing from a 5% should be rare. not 50 50 percent chance
[1363776]
xJadetsssx [None]
:: July 3, 2012, 10:01 p.m.
Losing from a 5% chance should be losing from a 5%
They are the numbers!, some times you will have luck and sometimes you wont
Once i succesfully spied a castle with 92% risk of being caught, and I didnt complain !
They are the numbers!, some times you will have luck and sometimes you wont
Once i succesfully spied a castle with 92% risk of being caught, and I didnt complain !
[1363779]
cheeze-it-guy [None]
:: July 3, 2012, 10:19 p.m.
i lost 20 times in a row on the same day and at different castles.
[1363783]
Bossdude [None]
:: July 3, 2012, 10:26 p.m.
hey man it happens i had a 6% spy risk and i still got caught. looks like you got the unlucky card.
[1363787]
xJadetsssx [None]
:: July 3, 2012, 10:30 p.m.
Luck, is not in your side, I once was trying to spy a RBC with 5% chance of being caught yet i failed like 4 times in a row, sometimes you dont have luck
[1363789]
cheeze-it-guy [None]
:: July 3, 2012, 10:40 p.m.
guess so. by the way im looking for a new alliance. you have to have 25 members or higher. and all english, if you do contact me on goodgame empire
[1363815]
J.I. Joe2 [None]
:: July 4, 2012, 1:25 a.m.
cheeze-it-guy wrote: »hey i'm a little confused on how the spy works. but i'm not a newbie.
first of all when you send the spy it has the set of percent on getting caught and the percent on seeing how much men you will spy on.
i set the spy at a 100% with 7 spy's and a 5% on getting caught.
i sent it and waited for the spy to get to its destination. but it got caught. theres a 5% on there on it got caught which i find this very confusing. try gambling 21. and you have 19 cards. what are the odds you will get a two? and thats the 5%
why does the spy get caught when its on a low rate on getting caught X( ??
thats why im asking to see if i get a proper answer ?(
Like others have mentioned, luck isn't on your side.
Often I spy at 5% chance of getting caught, and I don't remember ever being caught so far at that low percentage. It happens a bit more often when I increase to 8 or 9%.
[1363977]
Spyo [None]
:: July 4, 2012, 9:37 p.m.
cheeze-it-guy wrote: »hey i'm a little confused on how the spy works. but i'm not a newbie.
first of all when you send the spy it has the set of percent on getting caught and the percent on seeing how much men you will spy on.
i set the spy at a 100% with 7 spy's and a 5% on getting caught.
i sent it and waited for the spy to get to its destination. but it got caught. theres a 5% on there on it got caught which i find this very confusing. try gambling 21. and you have 19 cards. what are the odds you will get a two? and thats the 5%
why does the spy get caught when its on a low rate on getting caught X( ??
thats why im asking to see if i get a proper answer ?(
I noticed a similar problem, the better my odds of success are the more I seem to miss
ie: with a 50% chance I get about half ,, yet with a 25% chance of failure I lose about 3 out of 4,, I think it's a bug too ?(
ps: I noticed it often enough to keep mine at 50%
[1364040]
Sparkster [None]
:: July 5, 2012, 4:37 a.m.
Yeah, I'm not convinced that there aren't bugs in their probability calculations. It seems like I actually get caught pretty often when I do 5% risk. I've stopped doing nice, even numbers like that. Now I always set it for an odd number like 7 or 9%, and it seems like I get caught less often. That's just my perception though. What we really need to do is get some volunteers and do some scientific tests....
[1367128]
Unknown
:: July 20, 2012, 9:20 p.m.
Like it states there is a 5 per cent chance of getting caught not zero percent. The more spies you send the better the chance you will have of not getting caught. Try sending the maximum amount of spies.
You also have to keep in mind the amount of guard houses that the person you are attempting to spy on may have.
You also have to keep in mind the amount of guard houses that the person you are attempting to spy on may have.
[1368983]
Unknown
:: July 27, 2012, 2:15 a.m.
Funny, whenever it is 5% i lose. ALWAYS GO FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE BAR 75% accuracyisgood,andI ususally win....
[1369003]
William81 [None]
:: July 27, 2012, 4:07 a.m.
Well, I'm not a statistician, but I do have a Ph.D. and have taken about eight courses in statistics. If the probability of a getting caught is indeed 5% AND assuming that all of the spy attempts are truly independent of each other (which they should be), the probability of getting caught 4 times in a row is only 1 in 160,000. That's not impossible, but statistically speaking it's HIGHLY unlikely. And given that this seems to be occurring much more often than it statistically should, I'd say that it's a very safe bet to say that the percentages of being caught are WAY OFF. We would need a random sampling with fixed percentages at various levels (i.e., 5%, 10%, etc.) to be sure though.
[1369005]
xJadetsssx [None]
:: July 27, 2012, 4:37 a.m.
Well, I'm not a statistician, but I do have a Ph.D. and have taken about eight courses in statistics. If the probability of a getting caught is indeed 5% AND assuming that all of the spy attempts are truly independent of each other (which they should be), the probability of getting caught 4 times in a row is only 1 in 160,000. That's not impossible, but statistically speaking it's HIGHLY unlikely. And given that this seems to be occurring much more often than it statistically should, I'd say that it's a very safe bet to say that the percentages of being caught are WAY OFF. We would need a random sampling with fixed percentages at various levels (i.e., 5%, 10%, etc.) to be sure though.
You theory is right, I think the % of chance of being caught is bugged, I failed 5 times In a row two times, something that should happen 1 in 3'200'000 times and that happened twice!, or I have the worst luck on earth, or this thing is bugged, I can see it when I spy RBC's often..., you dont have to be smart to notice you fail way more than you should....
[1369493]
MightyQwerty1 [None]
:: July 29, 2012, 2:49 a.m.
What I have noticed is that if you go for 100% accuracy, you will fail more often than not, no matter what your chance of being caught is. Set your accuracy in the mid-90's and that 5% risk will almost never find you.
[1369508]
KingFighter950 [None]
:: July 29, 2012, 5:06 a.m.
try sending one at a time besides i spied on someone with no city gaurds and got cought
[1370091]
RoF112 [None]
:: July 30, 2012, 8:31 p.m.
I've seen this problem before, when someone tried spying on me a good 7 times, and failed all 7 times, 3 of which were below 20% chance of being caught. I've seen that if you keep between 20%-40% range you'll get caught less often... at least from what I've seen. However, about those 'scientific tests' I can run a hypothesis test... but I need at least 30 data points from different people.
[1370165]
huzaifa memon (INT1) [None]
:: July 30, 2012, 9:40 p.m.
cheeze-it-guy wrote: »guess so. by the way im looking for a new alliance. you have to have 25 members or higher. and all english, if you do contact me on goodgame empire
oh yeah your the guy that sofri74 hates... am i right?
[1370577]
ToTheMax [None]
:: Aug. 1, 2012, 1:27 a.m.
Math sucks right? 